Sounds right. The other day on Touring Plans, Seth said the capacity of Diagon is apx. 8000 as opposed to Hogsmeade's 4000. Seems like it's always filled, plus both park's afternoon attraction wait times have been high. That 8000 alone adds a good attendance percentage, plus rest of the 2 park's overflow. That's a lot of extra capacity and that doesn't even count Hogwart's Express. And when they're at Diagon, all of those people are removed from the general park eyesight since interior Diagon is completely isolated from view.
Its not filled though...they arent even doing Land Control anymore, the area isnt at capacity. And Gringotts averaged a 2-hour wait today. For a ride thats a week old and attached to a huge IP, that doesnt seem right; imagine how short the line would be if it were running at full capacity! The HE, on the other hand, despite being predicted to be the mother of all queue lines, rests at 5 minutes many times through the day, usually topping off around 40.
Meanwhile, even TMs in Diagon Alley are getting hours cut. Hell, people from DA are being asked to simply not come and even being let go because they just arent needed.
Now Im not saying that DA didnt provide a good boost to attendance...but it really had no choice, seeing how low the attendance was the rest of the summer. And early projections are nowhere near the reality. Its naive to think that Universal was expecting this all along. If this kind of turnout is what they wanted, they would have scheduled TMs appropriately and set more realistic merch goals and attendance projections. You dont even need to have an in with management to know that the park does not look as busy as it should, all you have to do is walk around and realize that if you didnt know any better, you wouldnt know a brand new expansion had just opened up.
So whats the problem? Ticket prices and merchandise too expensive? Blackout dates? I for one think that the last-minute announcement has led to many vacations being postponed until Christmas (which I believe will be quite a bit busier). I also believe the increasing social media buzz has scared people into not going for fear of crowds...although it turns out theres nothing to be scared of. There also seems to be some general confusion among the general public, particularly foreigners, as to which Harry Potter area is which, whether or not Diagon Alley is in IOA or not, or if there even is any new expansion.
Im sure this winter will see more traditional crowding. But theres no way one can argue Universal is hitting their target. Sometimes sources have to say what they do to exude a positive light; thats no replacement for actually seeing it for yourself. Also, its the management actually working in the park that provide the best testimonies, IMO, and they all seem to be saying the same thing.