Another reason why I'd be surprised about Zootopia replacing Avatar (especially if it includes a straight port of Shanghai's ride) is that, based on the reporting around Villains Land, Lightning Lane seems to have changed the financial calculus justifying why and how rides are greenlit in the American parks*. According to Drew Taylor, one of the primary motivators behind the changes to the Villains Land lineup was to ensure that the Magic Kingdoms' new rides would have to be
A. Family-friendly enough to ensure that the whole family will choose to purchase Lightning Lanes
B. Great enough to ensure that those Single Ride Lightning Lanes were the most popular Lightning Lanes in the park
Zootopia: Hot Pursuit certainly fulfills the family-friendly part of that equation, but I'm not sure the ride as it currently exists is that different from a slew of other rides at the Disney parks. Does it matter at all if the latest DCA attraction is merely "just as good" as the litany of other advanced dark rides at the Resort, or does it have to be exceptional to drive secondary purchases? And if so, does the Lightning Lane justification for what and how rides are built actually matter within the context of the Disneyland Resort, or is it more of a concern for WDW, whose existing capacity constraints facilitate the environment where rabid demand for Lightning Lanes can grow?
* An ironic development given that ride expenditures were probably justified with similar logic during the E-ticket, D-ticket days.