Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

[Mad Dog]

sorry, was just multi quoting, but I changed topics in replying to you...guess I should have replied to your part separately. One day I will understand these interwebs!

:thumbsup:

 

[zg44]

There's 3 separate questions here:

1) The legal issue (my post above summarizes the case) as well as further procurement of land (remember that Stan Thomas still holds roughly 800+ acres nearby including around 500+ acres directly connecting the 475 acres that Comcast bought out of bankruptcy).

2) How fast can it be built? Arguably within 3-3.5 years at a maximum if it had to be rushed... but then:

3) When's the optimal timing given other projects: Universal Beijing will arguably be the focus for Universal Resorts in 2021 (or 2022) and then you have the WDW 50th that likely will run through 2022.

If you put it all together, it probably favors the actual opening dates in the year 2023 (which would give Comcast 5.5 years to sort out the legal issues and then get it built while letting Universal Beijing get its year and WDW 50th).

If I had to design an "odds of when the next gate opens", it'd look something like this:

2021: 10% odds
2022: 20% odds (cumulative 30%)
2023: 40% odds (cumulative 70%)
2024: 15% odds (cumulative 85%)
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
2026 or later: 5% odds

Basically, that's what it looks like to me based on all the other issues; by 2023 at the latest I'd assume it's up and running; with a decent chance of it being finished earlier or later.

 

[Mad Dog]

There's 3 separate questions here:

1) The legal issue (my post above summarizes the case) as well as further procurement of land (remember that Stan Thomas still holds roughly 800+ acres nearby including around 500+ acres directly connecting the 475 acres that Comcast bought out of bankruptcy).

2) How fast can it be built? Arguably within 3-3.5 years at a maximum if it had to be rushed... but then:

3) When's the optimal timing given other projects: Universal Beijing will arguably be the focus for Universal Resorts in 2021 (or 2022) and then you have the WDW 50th that likely will run through 2022.

If you put it all together, it probably favors the actual opening dates in the year 2023 (which would give Comcast 5.5 years to sort out the legal issues and then get it built while letting Universal Beijing get its year and WDW 50th).

If I had to design an "odds of when the next gate opens", it'd look something like this:

2021: 10% odds
2022: 20% odds (cumulative 30%)
2023: 40% odds (cumulative 70%)
2024: 15% odds (cumulative 85%)
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
2026 or later: 5% odds

Basically, that's what it looks like to me based on all the other issues; by 2023 at the latest I'd assume it's up and running; with a decent chance of it being finished earlier or later.

You'd make a good sports bookie. ....Yeah, I'd take those odds. My guesses would be right along what you posted. :thumbsup:

 

[s8film40]

There's 3 separate questions here:

1) The legal issue (my post above summarizes the case) as well as further procurement of land (remember that Stan Thomas still holds roughly 800+ acres nearby including around 500+ acres directly connecting the 475 acres that Comcast bought out of bankruptcy).

2) How fast can it be built? Arguably within 3-3.5 years at a maximum if it had to be rushed... but then:

3) When's the optimal timing given other projects: Universal Beijing will arguably be the focus for Universal Resorts in 2021 (or 2022) and then you have the WDW 50th that likely will run through 2022.

If you put it all together, it probably favors the actual opening dates in the year 2023 (which would give Comcast 5.5 years to sort out the legal issues and then get it built while letting Universal Beijing get its year and WDW 50th).

If I had to design an "odds of when the next gate opens", it'd look something like this:

2021: 10% odds
2022: 20% odds (cumulative 30%)
2023: 40% odds (cumulative 70%)
2024: 15% odds (cumulative 85%)
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
2026 or later: 5% odds

Basically, that's what it looks like to me based on all the other issues; by 2023 at the latest I'd assume it's up and running; with a decent chance of it being finished earlier or later.

Well I suppose that would be really nice of Universal to slow things down a bit and let Disney have a real strong anniversary year.

 

[Frank Drackman]

There's 3 separate questions here:

1) The legal issue (my post above summarizes the case) as well as further procurement of land (remember that Stan Thomas still holds roughly 800+ acres nearby including around 500+ acres directly connecting the 475 acres that Comcast bought out of bankruptcy).

2) How fast can it be built? Arguably within 3-3.5 years at a maximum if it had to be rushed... but then:

3) When's the optimal timing given other projects: Universal Beijing will arguably be the focus for Universal Resorts in 2021 (or 2022) and then you have the WDW 50th that likely will run through 2022.

If you put it all together, it probably favors the actual opening dates in the year 2023 (which would give Comcast 5.5 years to sort out the legal issues and then get it built while letting Universal Beijing get its year and WDW 50th).

If I had to design an "odds of when the next gate opens", it'd look something like this:

2021: 10% odds
2022: 20% odds (cumulative 30%)
2023: 40% odds (cumulative 70%)
2024: 15% odds (cumulative 85%)
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
2026 or later: 5% odds

Basically, that's what it looks like to me based on all the other issues; by 2023 at the latest I'd assume it's up and running; with a decent chance of it being finished earlier or later.

On the first point, I mean it could be built into the timeline and it would mean the 2023 or 2024 your odds point to. Anyway, the one way I think Comcast can use time and wait Stan out is by building Hotels and the City Walk type stuff since they are right there by OCCC...I feel they can make $$ from the land buy long before they ever open a 'theme park'.

 

[shiekra38]

There's 3 separate questions here:

1) The legal issue (my post above summarizes the case) as well as further procurement of land (remember that Stan Thomas still holds roughly 800+ acres nearby including around 500+ acres directly connecting the 475 acres that Comcast bought out of bankruptcy).

2) How fast can it be built? Arguably within 3-3.5 years at a maximum if it had to be rushed... but then:

3) When's the optimal timing given other projects: Universal Beijing will arguably be the focus for Universal Resorts in 2021 (or 2022) and then you have the WDW 50th that likely will run through 2022.

If you put it all together, it probably favors the actual opening dates in the year 2023 (which would give Comcast 5.5 years to sort out the legal issues and then get it built while letting Universal Beijing get its year and WDW 50th).

If I had to design an "odds of when the next gate opens", it'd look something like this:

2021: 10% odds
2022: 20% odds (cumulative 30%)
2023: 40% odds (cumulative 70%)
2024: 15% odds (cumulative 85%)
2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)
2026 or later: 5% odds

Basically, that's what it looks like to me based on all the other issues; by 2023 at the latest I'd assume it's up and running; with a decent chance of it being finished earlier or later.

Do you have a Spaghetti Plot diagram to go along with this? I'm Floridian, I only understand Spaghetti Plots

 

[Frank Drackman]

Do you have a Spaghetti Plot diagram to go along with this? I'm Floridian, I only understand Spaghetti Plots

Just beware of the Flying Spaghetti Monster!

 

[graspthesun]

On the first point, I mean it could be built into the timeline and it would mean the 2023 or 2024 your odds point to. Anyway, the one way I think Comcast can use time and wait Stan out is by building Hotels and the City Walk type stuff since they are right there by OCCC...I feel they can make $$ from the land buy long before they ever open a 'theme park'.

I was going to make a similar comment as this. They could easily position hotels across from the convention center well before building out a new theme park. Add in entertainment/shopping/dining down there and this land/lawsuit might pay for itself even before they start development.

 

[Joel]

I was going to make a similar comment as this. They could easily position hotels across from the convention center well before building out a new theme park. Add in entertainment/shopping/dining down there and this land/lawsuit might pay for itself even before they start development.

But then he could see the benefits of developing his land in this newly vibrant area and never sell.

 

[s8film40]

But then he could see the benefits of developing his land in this newly vibrant area and never sell.

Yep, once you start developing the land value goes up. I would guess just the rumor of a new park has increased the lands value. If I were selling this land one of the first things I would mention is that it will likely be adjacent to a future Universal resort.

 

[zg44]

Yeah, the cost is already partially built in; this is no different from when Disney started to buy the original land in Orlando for his parks and then after the rumors started to fly around, the prices escalated dramatically.

Comcast got the 475 acres for $130 million. (And that's the best set of plots of land in the original UCPM III holdings).

But now, any acreage around there is worth probably at least $1.5-2 million an acre just because it's an "open secret" that Comcast has the 475 acres and is planning a new park.

The reality is that it may take a big offer (quite a ways over previous expectations) to get him to part with the remainder of the land. At most the remainder of the land was worth $200-250m pre-Comcast purchase. But now? He might be asking for over $1 billion.

 

[Andysol]

2025: 10% odds (cumulative 95%)

I'd take 10:1 odds at 2025 in a heartbeat. I don't see it being done soon.
I mean, Nintendo still hasn't started- It's going to take longer for Nintendo than Avatar Announcement-Open.

 

[JungleSkip]

I'd take 10:1 odds at 2025 in a heartbeat. I don't see it being done soon.
I mean, Nintendo still hasn't started- It's going to take longer for Nintendo than Avatar Announcement-Open.

About the same, no? Nintendo was announced in '15, should open in 2020/21, Avatar announced in '11, didn't open until '17.

Also, Nintendo will open in Japan in 2019/2020, so it'll be quicker, from a certain point of view.

 

[Andysol]

About the same, no? Nintendo was announced in '15, should open in 2020/21, Avatar announced in '11, didn't open until '17.

We can guess that when construction starts.

@Teebin is as consistent as they come- and even he has never said "XYZ attraction is closing in XYZ and will be open in X years" that I can recall. Because he seems to be one of the only ones to not confuse facts with educated guessing.

How about we wait until a hammer drops and then we can plan ~3 years from that time? It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see everything open next HHN.

For the record- Avatar broke ground Jan 2014- 2 years and 4 months after announcement. We are at 2 years and 5 months currently with Nintendo. So it could be the same- but it easily couldn't be either.

Wasn't FFL supposed to be closing for years now? And T2? And DC last September? 4th Park opening in 2019/2020? Might as well start talking about MiB closing in the next few years and stating it as fact because everyone knows that will happen regardless. Oh, that's already happened? Forgive me.
Sorry if I don't take stock in educated guesses.

 

[JungleSkip]

Sorry if I don't take stock in educated guesses.

I'm not talking about an educated guess, but thanks for all that condescension.

KidZone TMs had been informed the majority of the land would be closing after HHN. That's where my "educated guess" comes from.

 

[zg44]

Well the 4th park has all sorts of complications (especially re: land/legal issues), so it's all guesswork at the moment.

I'd feel a lot more confident about guessing that the park will be open within 6-8 years if we could see a settlement reached between Stan Thomas and Comcast over the next 6-12 months.

Universal Resorts will probably have cash flow around $2.5-3bn this year; NBCUniversal will have cash flow around $8-9bn this year; Comcast as a whole has cash flow over $20bn this year...; usually these things settle when one side has that kind of financial capabilities and really wants to see this thing end.

There's another slight complication (Spielberg's contract) that is worth mentioning, since Comcast would love to buyout Spielberg before the 4th park is built, but I don't think that will be any cause for delay.

 

[Joel]

Is it just my interpretation or would anyone else not consider Nintendo to be officially announced in the same way Avatar was for Disney? It was technically announced for Japan with it going to other Universal parks eventually? ..again could just be my interpretation

 

[Mad Dog]

Is it just my interpretation or would anyone else not consider Nintendo to be officially announced in the same way Avatar was for Disney? It was technically announced for Japan with it going to other Universal parks eventually? ..again could just be my interpretation

The announcement was initiated by Nintendo. I would guess that Universal would not have said anything publicly at that point in time if not for Nintendo.

 

[Disneyhead]

The announcement was initiated by Nintendo. I would guess that Universal would not have said anything publicly at that point in time if not for Nintendo.

Universal wouldn't have mentioned until the quarterly report. And it would have been buried in financial data.

 

[fryoj]

I was going to make a similar comment as this. They could easily position hotels across from the convention center well before building out a new theme park. Add in entertainment/shopping/dining down there and this land/lawsuit might pay for itself even before they start development.

While I agree that they should get on hotels and Citiwalk across from the convention center asap as those are going to make money just off convention business. My only thought on starting before they have their I's crossed and T's dotted is if the park deal fell through, it could affect what kind of hotels they build. If it's adjacent to a park, a Dreamworks(just an example) hotel makes perfect sense. If the park falls through, that theme wouldn't be that hot of an idea. Of course, a high end Luxury hotel would work for either scenario, and would likely be built close to the Citiwalk, so that might be where they start either way.