I know this is purely anecdotal and not representative of the population as a whole, but:
I'm 29. Grew up a gamer. ALWAYS hated Pokemon. Not just that I wasn't interested, but I actively disliked any clips I saw of it, all the artwork, etc. Really not my vibe.
My husband grew up in a very different area than me with a different background and ALSO hates it and was bummed when I told him it's what's likely coming to IoA lol
My parents are young to have someone my age and even they don't know a single thing about Pokemon and would assume it's for children. My sister isn't a gamer and Pokemon is the kind of thing she'd also hate.
I personally know ONE person in my life who likes Pokemon, and it's a friend of a friend lol
ALL of the above people at least grasp the concept of Harry Potter and know a couple things about it even if they've never read/seen it. They all understand Mariokart and at least feel neutral or better about Mario or the other characters.
All this to say, I wonder how many people it takes to reach that level of profit vs the number of people to reach the profit listed for the other franchises. I'm not saying Pokemon is niche (I'm not naive lol), but is it going to draw as MANY people in as the other franchises? Because while merch sales and such are great, I'd imagine there's more appeal in drawing in MORE people. Pokemon will draw a lot, but I don't anticipate it having the same lines or crowd draw as something like Harry Potter.
Very very simplified math because I'm not good at math lol:
10 people buying $100/each of merch isn't as impactful as 100 people buying $5/each of merch PLUS that additional 90 people paying the cost of resort stays, park tickets, meals, etc.
tl;dr: I'd imagine a *broad* appeal is the biggest indicator of what will actually perform well at the park, and I think Pokemon will be POPULAR for sure but it won't have the broad appeal that a lot of other IPs would have.