Universal Orlando Resort Expansion News (Part 2)

[Alicia]

I was actually trying to compare universal studios Beijing property with the new Universal Orlando expansion property in terms of size comparison. How is universal Beijing able to fit a second park in according to their Wikipedia page and universal Orlando expansion will only have 1 theme park fantastic worlds since that is the official plan with hotels, big parking lot and citywalk nothing else?

Beijing is a huge solid block of land whereas the acreage for the new campus in broken by busy roads and other properties. The land is not consolidated into one parcel.

It's big enough for another park, they just don't NEED another park. They could always build another one down the line.

Walt Disney World didn't build Animal Kingdom at the same time as Disney-MGM Studios... so not sure why anyone would expect Universal to be building both their 3rd and 4th theme parks at the same time.

There's room for it. If they ever wanted to pull the trigger. Later. Much later.

 

[Magic-Man]

TPU Exclusive: Universal Orlando Tentative Future Project Timeline Through 2023 - Theme Park University

Didn't know where else to put this. I don't necessarily believe it, but whatever I guess.

 

[Alicia]

TPU Exclusive: Universal Orlando Tentative Future Project Timeline Through 2023 - Theme Park University

Didn't know where else to put this. I don't necessarily believe it, but whatever I guess.

I mean, like 90% of that lines up with everything we've been hearing/speculating about around here. I haven't received confirmation myself on the pushed back Bourne show, but he makes a good case about the Monsters remodel for the shop lasting a whole year.

 

[RFRees]

It's big enough for another park, they just don't NEED another park. They could always build another one down the line.

Walt Disney World didn't build Animal Kingdom at the same time as Disney-MGM Studios... so not sure why anyone would expect Universal to be building both their 3rd and 4th theme parks at the same time.

There's room for it. If they ever wanted to pull the trigger. Later. Much later.

Animal Kingdom was ~9 years after MGM...

Orlando Florida saw the opening of four theme parks over about 10 years (MGM, USF, Animal Kingdom, and IOA).

We're finally getting a new park after twenty years of waiting... But considering we had four in the nineties, it's not impossible for a lot more to come sometime soon after FW.

 

[Nick]

Animal Kingdom was ~9 years after MGM...

Orlando Florida saw the opening of four theme parks over about 10 years (MGM, USF, Animal Kingdom, and IOA).

We're finally getting a new park after twenty years of waiting... But considering we had four in the nineties, it's not impossible for a lot more to come sometime soon after FW.

And that was the big theme park boom that will never be seen again.

Orlando can only handle so many theme parks. If UOR were to eventually have 4 dry parks plus VB (maybe another water park?), WDW has 4 dry and 2 water and SeaWorld has a dry park, water park and a boutique park, we're then looking at a total of 14-15 parks in the Orlando area + places like FunSpot, LegoLand, I-Drive, etc. There's only so much demand.

 

[OrlLover]

And that was the big theme park boom that will never be seen again.

Orlando can only handle so many theme parks. If UOR were to eventually have 4 dry parks plus VB (maybe another water park?), WDW has 4 dry and 2 water and SeaWorld has a dry park, water park and a boutique park, we're then looking at a total of 14-15 parks in the Orlando area + places like FunSpot, LegoLand, I-Drive, etc. There's only so much demand.

Yes because even though Orlando is a tourism mecca all the parks are essentially all competing for the same dollars.

 

[darkridelover]

And that was the big theme park boom that will never be seen again.

Orlando can only handle so many theme parks. If UOR were to eventually have 4 dry parks plus VB (maybe another water park?), WDW has 4 dry and 2 water and SeaWorld has a dry park, water park and a boutique park, we're then looking at a total of 14-15 parks in the Orlando area + places like FunSpot, LegoLand, I-Drive, etc. There's only so much demand.

People were saying this exact same thing when Universal Studios was being built in Orlando at the same time Disney was building their own studios park. Everyone was saying the area would be over saturated with Theme Parks. That didn't happen. It turned Orlando into a bigger vacation destination. This will do the same.

It's like saying Las Vegas is already saturated with Casino's so we shouldn't build anymore.

 

[Nick]

People were saying this exact same thing when Universal Studios was being built in Orlando at the same time Disney was building their own studios park. Everyone was saying the area would be over saturated with Theme Parks. That didn't happen. It turned Orlando into a bigger vacation destination. This will do the same.

It's like saying Las Vegas is already saturated with Casino's so we shouldn't build anymore.

...except Vegas Casinos sometimes underperform and are shuttered. Universal and Disney don’t want that.

(Not to mention the cost of a hotel & casino is a lot less than a theme park)

 

[RFRees]

And that was the big theme park boom that will never be seen again.

Orlando can only handle so many theme parks. If UOR were to eventually have 4 dry parks plus VB (maybe another water park?), WDW has 4 dry and 2 water and SeaWorld has a dry park, water park and a boutique park, we're then looking at a total of 14-15 parks in the Orlando area + places like FunSpot, LegoLand, I-Drive, etc. There's only so much demand.

Standing in 2-4 hour lines at theme parks and what everyone is thinking is "Orlando is saturated with theme parks."

There's only so much demand, but there's only so much product (capacity).

Demand has significantly increased: USF went from 6 million (2007 through 2012) up to 10 million at USF, similar numbers for IOA (5 mil to 9 mil). We'll see where the numbers are at after FW, Star Wars, etc, but everything points to demand significantly increasing.

A huge part of this is that the entire world is becoming more "middle class", more people are taking vacations, and transportation (eg flights/rail) is expanding. So at the same time the product is increasing in quality (better attractions) the product is becoming more affordable/accessible to the customer.

I don't see this slowing down anytime soon. They can keep opening parks internationally instead, but there's no magic formula which states Orlando can only have x number of theme parks.

 

[JungleSkip]

The past 2 dry parks that opened in Orlando had unintended negative consequences. IoA was nowhere near the hit Uni needed it to be, and DAK did not extend vacations, instead it stole people from the existing 3 parks, not to mention the costs of it ended up stagnating Epcot and DHS for a long, long time.

The idea that Uni should jump into a 4th park right away is crazy.

 

[RFRees]

The past 2 dry parks that opened in Orlando had unintended negative consequences. IoA was nowhere near the hit Uni needed it to be, and DAK did not extend vacations, instead it stole people from the existing 3 parks, not to mention the costs of it ended up stagnating Epcot and DHS for a long, long time.

The idea that Uni should jump into a 4th park right away is crazy.

I agree: they shouldn't be diving in head first. But to say they aren't asking "how deep is the water" and planning for their next dive is crazy.

I think they'll see where FW lands and start green lighting if they're rolling in money.

But I think that's the same thing with Beijing, where they have future sites planned... If Universal Beijing has no visitors, you can bet they'll halt talks on their expansion plans.

 

[JungleSkip]

I agree: they shouldn't be diving in head first. But to say they aren't asking "how deep is the water" and planning for their next dive is crazy.

I think they'll see where FW lands and start green lighting if they're rolling in money.

But I think that's the same thing with Beijing, where they have future sites planned... If Universal Beijing has no visitors, you can bet they'll halt talks on their expansion plans.

That's the thing. You have no idea how deep the water is until they open the park.

 

[zg44]

Not sure why there's so much discussion of a 4th dry park.

That's a discussion for 2025 and beyond. Comcast execs will want to see real evidence that all USF/IoA/FW can all comfortably succeed (i.e. reach 10 million visitors each with no cannibalization) before they greenlight a 4th dry park.


Until there's real evidence that all 3 parks can run at capacity and that there's a need for another, it won't happen.

 

[RFRees]

That's the thing. You have no idea how deep the water is until they open the park.

They have an idea: it's a pool not a puddle, so it's feasible. They'll have their testing measurements ready and eyeing where to dive.

This as opposed to GE/Blackstone who said "this is our last dive, sell the pool!"

I think this all does matter right now as well: it's the argument of whether their current land can support it and whether their current expansion will "look" like they have a plan for development.

Universal selling off land a while back was a clear indication that they had no plans (at the time, under GE/Blackstone) for future expansion. I think this will look different.

 

[s8film40]

I really don't think this has very much at all to do with park capacity, I think it's more about hotels and the overall vacation stay. It's not so much about building parks to meet demand, but rather a marketing thing to get people to stay longer. As Disney figured out some time ago every time you add a park it encourages people to lengthen their stay. Most people assume you need a day for each park. I think this is why Universal decided to call Volcano Bay it's third park so they could market the resort as a three park resort. If you take Disneyland for example many people plan only two days while at WDW four days is the average even though both resorts have roughly the same amount of attractions. The leaked slideshow that revealed the name of the park also stated this as one of the primary reasons for adding it.

So the real question is by the time Universal gets around to adding a fourth park will Disney feel the need to add a fifth to compete, will SeaWorld feel like they need another park to keep up? There's definitely potential for more growth, it may seem crazy now but in 10 years or more it may make a lot more sense. I could also see the possibility of Universal finding more land in the future if needed. An easy solution down the road could be to buy out the Lockheed land. After ten years of being right next to a theme park and all the congestion that will come with that they may decide to move out. I don't think there's any limit on demand, but it's definitely possible that the bubble could burst at some point.

 

[zg44]

I really don't think this has very much at all to do with park capacity, I think it's more about hotels and the overall vacation stay. It's not so much about building parks to meet demand, but rather a marketing thing to get people to stay longer. As Disney figured out some time ago every time you add a park it encourages people to lengthen their stay. Most people assume you need a day for each park. I think this is why Universal decided to call Volcano Bay it's third park so they could market the resort as a three park resort. If you take Disneyland for example many people plan only two days while at WDW four days is the average even though both resorts have roughly the same amount of attractions. The leaked slideshow that revealed the name of the park also stated this as one of the primary reasons for adding it.

So the real question is by the time Universal gets around to adding a fourth park will Disney feel the need to add a fifth to compete, will SeaWorld feel like they need another park to keep up? There's definitely potential for more growth, it may seem crazy now but in 10 years or more it may make a lot more sense. I could also see the possibility of Universal finding more land in the future if needed. An easy solution down the road could be to buy out the Lockheed land. After ten years of being right next to a theme park and all the congestion that will come with that they may decide to move out. I don't think there's any limit on demand, but it's definitely possible that the bubble could burst at some point.

Naw, I don't think it'll play out quite like that. Disney may just stick to 4 WDW theme parks because they're adding capacity in other ways such as Disney Cruises.


Disney could add another 5-10 cruise ships to their Florida fleet over time. That'd be a much better way to expand "Florida vacation capacity" without needing to add another theme park.

 

[Andysol]

Not sure where to put this (blue sky? If so, please move), but all the conversation had me thinking about what would have been the best moves UOR could have done in hindsight and I'd like to hear other's opinions on it as well.

I didn't originally think SNW going to FW was a good move, but I've come around to believe that it certainly is. It's just the anchor they need, in particular with the scale of it.

What I would have liked to have seen UOR do is be very aggressive against Disney during their big push, and then cap it off with Fantastic Worlds. Just building momentum and then really taking the crown for the decade with FW.

What my ideal scenario was:
- Hagrid's 2019
- SLoP & JW Retheme/Coaster 2020
- Pokemon Kidzone 2021
- Minor 2022- maybe a show at TL theater or a new show at FFL
- Fantastic Worlds 2023
Bourne could be 2019 or 2020. I think it'll be a sleeper hit, but it's insignificant in regards to an attraction.

It seems like it will now be:
- Hagrid's 2019
- Bourne 2020
- JW 2021
- Minor 2022
- Fantastic Worlds 2023

The back to back combo of JW and Pokemon for WDWs 50th in 2021 would have truly generated some massive competition. With nothing seemingly happening in KZ, I think pushing JW to 2021 was certainly the correct move with the current lineup.
I also think whatever comes in 2022 would be so swallowed up with being in the shadow of FW in 2023 that it won't matter, so no need to do anything then.

The glaring weakness appears to be 2020; when Disney is bringing out Ratatouille and Mickey/Minnie. SLoP would've been a great counter to that; and it's doubtful they could get anything up and running for 2020 at this point, so that brings my attention to 2021 instead.

Why not move JW up to 2020 and find something of substance to add in 2021 (even late 2021)? I'd love to see Pokemon to KidZone back on the table, but really anything of significance would suffice.

Any thoughts as to what could potentially come for 2021 or do we think this is all that's on the table?

@Disneyhead @Alicia @Legacy

 

[zg44]

Gotta be honest with you, I don't like the idea of rolling out any Nintendo attractions in Orlando until after SNW is up and running.

 

[Legacy]

Not sure where to put this (blue sky? If so, please move), but all the conversation had me thinking about what would have been the best moves UOR could have done in hindsight and I'd like to hear other's opinions on it as well.

I didn't originally think SNW going to FW was a good move, but I've come around to believe that it certainly is. It's just the anchor they need, in particular with the scale of it.

What I would have liked to have seen UOR do is be very aggressive against Disney during their big push, and then cap it off with Fantastic Worlds. Just building momentum and then really taking the crown for the decade with FW.

What my ideal scenario was:
- Hagrid's 2019
- SLoP & JW Retheme/Coaster 2020
- Pokemon Kidzone 2021
- Minor 2022- maybe a show at TL theater or a new show at FFL
- Fantastic Worlds 2023
Bourne could be 2019 or 2020. I think it'll be a sleeper hit, but it's insignificant in regards to an attraction.

It seems like it will now be:
- Hagrid's 2019
- Bourne 2020
- JW 2021
- Minor 2022
- Fantastic Worlds 2023

The back to back combo of JW and Pokemon for WDWs 50th in 2021 would have truly generated some massive competition. With nothing seemingly happening in KZ, I think pushing JW to 2021 was certainly the correct move with the current lineup.
I also think whatever comes in 2022 would be so swallowed up with being in the shadow of FW in 2023 that it won't matter, so no need to do anything then.

The glaring weakness appears to be 2020; when Disney is bringing out Ratatouille and Mickey/Minnie. SLoP would've been a great counter to that; and it's doubtful they could get anything up and running for 2020 at this point, so that brings my attention to 2021 instead.

Why not move JW up to 2020 and find something of substance to add in 2021 (even late 2021)? I'd love to see Pokemon to KidZone back on the table, but really anything of significance would suffice.

Any thoughts as to what could potentially come for 2021 or do we think this is all that's on the table?

@Disneyhead @Alicia @Legacy

I haven't heard much on the Creative side of what's coming, apart from what is already known. I wouldn't be surprised if, assuming SLoP is a hit in Hollywood, Universal will turn around and fast-track for a 2021/2022 opening.

That said, I agree with your thought process, but I think a lot of the momentum from the last few years have put them in the crunch they're in now. It's easy to blame Fast and the Furious and the SNW move, but I think what REALLY started this trend to mediocrity was moving Reign of Kong from the original plan as a Disaster Replacement to IoA.

If they HADN'T have done that:

1) They would still have the JP expansion pad for a JW attraction, and
2) They couldn't have lazily reused the Kong ride system for F&F. It likely would have resulted in MiB getting replaced, but at least the ride system itself would have been a better quality.

Personally, I'm of the mindset that, now, the Studios would be better served by a sizeable revamp to the entryway, while turning KidZone into a full "Illumination" land. Both Shrek (for SLoP) and Despicable Me fit in the same space as B79 (the Parade Bldge behind KidZone), without interfering with the play area. Build those two attractions back there, replace Barney with the Sing! World Tour show from (while upgrading the venue), then turn Fievel into Super Silly Fun Land. Boom. Massive adjustment.

At the entrance, demo the Studio Store and shift the main entrance/pathway over a bit (to where you're essentially entering where you exit). Then, ALSO, demo Despicable Me and build a new, multi-story, Studio Store.

Leave Shrek for the time being. When it's time, demo and rebuild (don't "retrofit") a new DreamWorks Theater/thesis statement ride.

 

[RFRees]

It's tricky (regarding supply/demand for services), but capacity does still have a major factor in all of this. If they built ten new theme parks today, they'd basically have too much "supply" (capacity) compared to the current demand. They could attempt to market their new parks to increase demand, but there's only so much you could do.