Its probably unlikely a majority of people are waiting until Rise opens because we are making the assumption people do research before traveling when we already have anecdotal evidence from Castmembers asking them where is Harry Potter when they go to Hollywood Studios. I believe there is a small minority of people who were waiting for Rise to open but its not as substantial as people believe.
I'm in the firm camp that we as people essentially place ourselves in echo chambers which amplifies certain views and opinions which do not necessary reflect the holistic picture of society as a whole. While Star Wars did massive well in the box office, you are missing the biggest aspect which benefits Pandora, which benefited the first opening of Potter and so much more. Pandora was a worldwide hit which succeeded everywhere. Potter also was a worldwide phenomenon. For Potter, it first opened at Potter at USF was the first Potter ever to open which created huge demand, followed by USJ, which was huge, then we saw softness at USH after it already was open for multiple years at two key hubs that allowed multiple demographics from around the world to experience at multiple locations potentially closer to their homes and earlier effecting the opening at USH. Pandora is only available at DAK and no where else so if you wanted to go the only place you could go is Animal Kingdom which essentially helps boost crowds for that land. SWGE you essentially split the two audiences between two locations by opening three months apart from each other. Distribution of crowds is going to effect the amount of people in each park which is going to effect the outlook on the lands.
Star Wars main audience is Europeans and North Americans who grew up with the series and their children. The new films already showed the extreme disinterest in Asia and Africa with softness in South America despite being box office mega hits in the US and Europe. But while we know the film is mega-hits in these areas, we are basing that off box office receipts of money made and not based on tickets sold/location of tickets sold.
Why does that matter? Because we are assuming many of those persons who are going to the films are the same demographics who go to theme parks and/or have the disposable income to go to the theme park and spend a lot of merch. Its the same issue the industry trades and theater distributors made this week with the belief that senior citizens don't go to movies being proven wrong with Downton Abbey overperforming expectations with angry senior citizens showing up angry that theaters weren't showing it and/or it was sold out. Disney made the wrong analysis not fully looking at Star Wars audiences that coincide with theme parkgoers. I also believe Disney thought the Star Wars Weekend crowds would also love Star Wars Land not realizing that they damaged their standing within that fanbase community.
Lastly, I don't think the Mandalorian and the upcoming film necessarily is going to save GE, and I think its not wise to rely on that. Analytics show that only 21% of Netflix subscribers in the US are interested in getting Disney+ (11% are interested in HBO MAX and 10% in Peacock for reference) and the assumption that they are subscribing for that show in particular may lead to even more false assumptions. An additional Disney+ analytic survey showed that the products people are most excited for to watch on Disney+ in the US and Canada were The Simpsons, Star Wars Rebels, Mickey Mouse Club, Ducktales, and Andi Mack....in that exact order. Lastly, the trades haven't even tried to put tracking estimates for the upcoming film however we can generally gauge interest most likely on Oct 14 when I expect Disney to allow ticket pre-ordering. (For reference, the other two preorder dates were in October on Mondays tied into Monday Night Football)